a16z 转发其访谈节目，Tutor Intelligence 联合创始人兼 CEO Josh Gruenstein 表示机器人估值方法就是把机器人能完成的工作量除以成本，若机器人能以更低成本完成工作，市场规模是所有体力劳动。引述某华尔街机构对年度机器人销量的预测为 2026 年 2900 万台、2030 年 9300 万台、2040 年 6.05 亿台、2050 年 14 亿台。
AI 生成摘要 · 以原文为准
Josh Gruenstein of Tutor Intelligence on how to value a robot: "You take how much work a robot can do and you divide it by its cost, and that's it. Everything else is commentary."
If robots can do that work for less, he says the market is "all physical work done."
One Wall Street firm's view of the scale, in a forecast of annual robot sales:
- 2026: 29 million
- 2030: 93 million
- 2040: 605 million
- 2050: 1.4 billion
"We're just gonna have way more factories in the same way that we have way more businesses because the cloud and all of the software tooling let people build new businesses."
"Anybody will be able to start a business in the physical world. Anybody will be able to scale a business in the physical world if we kind of have this infinite flexible labor substrate."
@joshgruenstein @tutorintel
Tutor Intelligence co-founder and CEO Josh Gruenstein is putting AI robots to work in American factories and warehouses, taking on the back-breaking jobs they can't hire for. Tutor builds its robots in Massachusetts and charges by the hour, with no upfront cost. When the AI gets stuck, a human "tutor" takes over and teaches it the task, creating training data along the way. Josh joins a16z's Martin Casado and Raghu Raghuram to discuss how Tutor goes from a first sales call to a working robot in about three months, why so many robot startups died building for a single customer, why anyone will be able to start a business in the physical world, and a whole lot more. 0:50 Deploy robots, then build the data 2:50 Why smart robots aren't enough 4:38 The ultimate systems problem 6:45 Why robot companies go vertical 9:07 How remote humans tutor robots 11:00 Will robots outgrow their tutors? 14:54 How AI labs sped up robotics 16:57 Meet Cassie and Sonny 20:55 What factory work actually looks like 23:18 A robot for $16 an hour 25:51 When robots become coworkers 29:04 Why robot startups keep dying 31:21 When 1% cheaper flips a market 34:52 Robots cost more to run than to buy 38:18 China's automation bet may backfire 42:02 Real-world RL on a 100-robot fleet YouTube: https://youtu.be/lXkjXSul6yg @joshgruenstein @tutorintel @martin_casado @RaghuRaghuram在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：a16z · x.com