a16z· @a16z · X·· 17 天前AI 评分46
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Ben Horowitz 借用 Databricks CEO @alighodsi 的框架,谈要真正出现 AI“快速起飞”情景需要什么: 1. 每个新模型所需 GPU 远少于上一个 2. 每个新模型训练耗时更短 3. 每个新模型比上一个更准确 4. 这一过程持续反复发生 “这四条一条都没满足……我们现在谈论的完全是一个理论上的风险。” @bhorowitz 在 @theallinpod
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Ben Horowitz on what it would take to actually see an AI "fast takeoff" scenario, using a framework from Databricks CEO @alighodsi:
- Each new model needs far fewer GPUs than the last
- Each new model takes less time to train
- Each new model is more accurate than the last
- It keeps happening, again and again
"Zero of those four have been met... We're really talking about a risk that's entirely theoretical at this point."
@bhorowitz on @theallinpod
Ali Ghodsi of @Databricks on the four conditions that would have to hold for AI to truly improve itself: "The next model requires less resources, less GPUs to train... The second condition: the next model takes less time to train as well. Third, accuracy of the model, the intelligence is increasing. And fourth, we can do the former three again and again and again... All at the same time, not just any of them." "If you just mean that the software is writing itself, we're already there today. Like 90-some percent of the software in Databricks is written by AI. Does it matter if the last few percent is also written by AI? No." "If you're getting these four conditions, then you might get a speed-up where the next model, let's say, takes half amount of time and half the resources, and it is more intelligent... By the way, I don't even know if that necessarily leads you to superintelligence." "A lot of people, their definition is just, 'Hey, if I'm not even coding anymore and it's coding itself'... I think they're conflating, 'Hey, what's my value and is it scary for me?' Versus, 'Hey, that then means we'll get that superintelligence that in 2014 was hypothesized by Bostrom.'" @alighodsi @martin_casado @sarah_wang在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源:a16z · x.com