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a16z· @a16z · X·· 13 天前AI 评分50
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a16z 转发 Gimlet Labs 的 Zain Asgar 观点:90 年代通用芯片击败了 Thinking Machines、Cray Computer 等专用芯片厂商,但促成通用芯片胜出的条件已经改变。Dennard scaling 约 2005 年终结,晶体管成本约 2012 年起不再下降,内存带宽始终跟不上算力增长。

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In the '90s, general-purpose chips wiped out the specialists. The original Thinking Machines, Cray Computer, and a wave of others shut down, and their best ideas got absorbed into other chips.

Zain Asgar of @gimletlabs argues the conditions that made generalists win have changed. Dennard scaling (shrinking transistors made chips faster at the same power) ended around 2005, transistor costs stopped falling around 2012, and memory bandwidth never kept up with compute.

Meanwhile, token demand is projected to grow 24x by 2030 while available power grows about 2x. When power is the bottleneck, performance per watt wins, and that's where specialized chips shine.

Full piece from Zain on why "the time of specialization is upon us": https://www.a16z.news/p/why-hardware-specialization-is-back

引用Zain Asgar@zainasgar
https://x.com/i/article/2112588009790943232
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来源:a16z · x.com