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a16z· @a16z · X·· 5 天前AI 评分45
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Anduril 的 Brian Schimpf 表示,战争是工业规模的持久消耗,若归结为单一变量,能向对方投送多少公斤弹药是最关键因素,工业产能本身就是威慑。他认为技术优势依然重要,美国不可能在低端弹药产量上超越中国,须依靠太空、感知、干扰与武器精密程度建立优势。但多数对华兵棋推演显示美军弹药约八天耗尽,少量高端武器不足以赢得冲突。

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Brian Schimpf of @AndurilTech on why industrial production is a deterrent in itself, and why technological superiority alone won't win a war:

"These wars are protracted, they are industrial in scale, and if you were to bring it down to one variable, the amount of kilograms that you can throw at each other turns out to probably be the single most important factor."

"I think the technical superiority is a huge advantage. We're not gonna just outproduce China on like dumb ammunition, right? Like that clearly we have to have an edge around our space capabilities, how we can sense, how we can confuse them, how sophisticated our weapons are."

"But I think the part that got so clear outta Ukraine was that industrial production has a deterrence factor... it is critical for winning a conflict."

"When most of the war games with China show that we'd be out of munitions in... like eight days, that's not a deterrence factor really anymore."

"I think the belief for a long time was that [technological superiority] was sufficient, but a low number of really exquisite weapons is not gonna win a conflict."

@SchimpfBrian (September 2025)

引用Katherine Boyle@KTmBoyle
Production is Deterrence.
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来源:a16z · x.com