a16z 的 Alex Danco 和 Moses Sternstein 认为 GPU 快速贬值的看空假设是错的：租金相对折旧表持续溢价，H200 高出 143%、B200 高出 111%、RTX PRO 6000 高出 73%、H100 高出 54%、A100 高出 9%，多数差距在 4 月 token 需求起飞后拉开。Moses 指出即便 token 价格下降，消费量仍推动 GPU 相对稀缺。
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a16z's Alex Danco and Moses Sternstein on the bear case that GPUs would depreciate fast, what rental rates actually show, and why the data points to scarcity:
Alex: "There is a whole case that people made on both sides of the argument that these things were assets that would depreciate on a schedule. And in the past 18 months, I think what we have learned is that all our assumptions were wrong."
Moses: "GPU rental rates continue to go up. Even as token pricing comes down, you see more and more consumption, and it's causing relative scarcity amongst the GPUs that we have."
"Even for the older GPUs, the A100s, which have been around already for five years, that were supposed to become obsolete... Whether they had 4-year depreciation schedules, 6-year depreciation schedules, they were supposed to be obsolete almost immediately, and that was the original bear case."
"And plainly, they're not... Everybody is priced above what they should be based on their scheduled obsolescence. And that's true of the older models, the A100 and the H100."
@alex_danco @MosesSternstein
Zooming out, GPUs are still renting ahead of a standard 6-year depreciation schedule Rental price vs. schedule: - H200: +143% - B200: +111% - RTX PRO 6000: +73% - H100: +54% - A100: +9% Most of the gap opened up after April, when token demand took off Charts of the Week: https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-attention-is-all在 X 查看被引用的帖子
来源：a16z · x.com