#大佬观点

Whoa. Doubling down. Literally!! ~$200B of “backstopping” of which HALF is “residual value guarantees” which means more lease backing (now ~$500B) IF the leases don’t renew. Big Bet - Big Risk Future AI data center value is pure speculation! Bit it keeps the shell game going.

He who shapes power, data centers, chips and models into an economically feasible endpoint, disproportionately shapes AI/SI right now. Why? Power is THE binding constraint in AI/SI. Few really have it. Data centers don’t work without power. This is not about promises of power tomorrow. Or forecasted power in 2028. Power TODAY. Chips can’t operate profitably unless installed in a functional data center. If you can install chips, it’s because you’ve solved the power problem. Models aren’t economically viable unless run on cost effective infrastructure which requires a functional data center with low input costs and reliable management. This can’t happen without power. AI/SI ROI doesn’t pencil unless models generate profitable outputs which necessarily needs functional data centers as the critical input. Again, power. Ergo, he who can shape data centers, chips and models together into a tightly coordinated stack is someone who has solved power. Solving power allows you to disproportionately shape AI/SI right now.

In my opinion, Elon can’t hit 13GW+ without acquiring the power He’s doing this best so he can acquire some neo clouds for Pennies on the dollar $NBIS $IREN $CRWV

电力是 AI 建设浪潮面临的最大瓶颈之一，而美国生产电气设备的能力正在萎缩 2019 年以来美国工厂产能变化： - 通信设备：+110% - 半导体：+77% - 计算机：+16% - 电气设备：-9% 电气设备价格上涨 69%，是四类中涨幅最大的 本周图表：https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-attention-is-all

安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）担任 CEO 五年来，AWS 规模几乎扩大至三倍，亚马逊营收增长约 80%，并计划今年投入 2200 亿美元以赢得 AI 竞赛。亚马逊的 AI 业务在三年内达到 250 亿美元的年化收入，增速是早期 AWS 的数百倍。 贾西做客 a16z 的 Ben Horowitz 和 Erik Torenberg 的节目，畅谈这一历程背后的决策：从疫情后重建亚马逊的履约网络，到 AWS 的起源故事。 他们还探讨了：数据中心为何成为政治斗争焦点、亚马逊的自研芯片、对 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 的投资、推理成本为何需要降低 10 倍、AI 最被低估的风险、为何每家公司都必须从零开始重塑产品，以及贾西给当今 18 岁年轻人的建议。 0:47 2021 年以来亚马逊的变化 1:51 疫情如何重塑零售业 3:30 AI 为何为 AWS 增长注入超级动力 5:20 领导力原则冲突时怎么办 9:36 6000 万美元 vs. 250 亿美元：早期 AWS 与早期 AI 13:20 AI 资本支出的现金循环如何运作 15:44 美国为何必须建设数据中心 20:55 从实验室到企业的 AI 哑铃模式 23:12 需求增长 vs. AWS 老客户 28:11 Annapurna、Graviton 与 Trainium 33:55 押注 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 37:15 为何 AI 意味着更小的团队 42:13 AI 被低估的风险：安全 46:29 亚马逊为何重构 Alexa 的大脑 53:07 贾西如何跟孩子谈 AI 56:36 押注 AI、机器人与太空 YouTube: https://youtu.be/-YMMRQ1qscI @ajassy @Amazon @bhorowitz @eriktorenberg

The math: benchmarks put one solar puller at ~11–15 MW/yr (Soochow ‘23, Linton prospectus, ESIA ‘24). 1,730 pullers ≈ 20–25 GWp/yr. Benchmarks are ~3 yrs old and these units cost ~50% more, so ~30 GWp is plausible. At a 20–23% capacity factor, with storage and backup, that’s ~4–7 GW of power (~35–60 TWh/yr). (2/3)

Anyone can build a datacenter, they said

"Energy Capacity = Economic Capacity" Former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger on why America's power grid is the ceiling on growth: "We went through 10 to 15 years where essentially I was taking coal offline at the rate I was adding renewables, and essentially the nation was flatlined in terms of overall energy capacity." "So essentially our economic capacity as a nation, flat for fifteen years." "Even with that, we've gone to maybe increasing our national energy capacity 4% per year. Going from essentially zero to one." "Nuclear as base load is a fabulous thing that we want to go build more of. Unfortunately all of our renewables have deep dependencies in China." "Energy capacity somewhat dampens how euphoric we can get on AI. Why build a new data center and buy the million GPUs if I can't power them?" @PGelsinger @RaghuRaghuram @appenz

"Energy Capacity = Economic Capacity" Former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger on why America's power grid is the ceiling on growth: "We went through 10 to 15 years where essentially I was taking coal offline at the rate I was adding renewables, and essentially the nation was flatlined in terms of overall energy capacity." "So essentially our economic capacity as a nation, flat for fifteen years." "Even with that, we've gone to maybe increasing our national energy capacity 4% per year. Going from essentially zero to one." "Nuclear as base load is a fabulous thing that we want to go build more of. Unfortunately all of our renewables have deep dependencies in China." "Energy capacity somewhat dampens how euphoric we can get on AI. Why build a new data center and buy the million GPUs if I can't power them?" @PGelsinger @RaghuRaghuram @appenz

"Energy Capacity = Economic Capacity" Former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger on why America's power grid is the ceiling on growth: "We went through 10 to 15 years where essentially I was taking coal offline at the rate I was adding renewables, and essentially the nation was flatlined in terms of overall energy capacity." "So essentially our economic capacity as a nation, flat for fifteen years." "Even with that, we've gone to maybe increasing our national energy capacity 4% per year. Going from essentially zero to one." "Nuclear as base load is a fabulous thing that we want to go build more of. Unfortunately all of our renewables have deep dependencies in China." "Energy capacity somewhat dampens how euphoric we can get on AI. Why build a new data center and buy the million GPUs if I can't power them?" @PGelsinger @RaghuRaghuram @appenz