#HBM

据媒体报道，由于DRAM严重缺货、价格持续上涨，DRAM平均售价（ASP）较第二季度上涨60%，南亚科技第三季度毛利率高达85.7%： 第三季度营收较第二季度增长61.9%，达1336.5亿新台币 第三季度营业利益率80% 第三季度净利润876.3亿新台币，超过过去7年总和 每股盈余（EPS）25.4新台币 南亚将于第一季度在新厂安装设备，目标在2027年底前达到每月3万片晶圆（wpm）产能。 南亚表示将在台湾屏东兴建先进封装厂 AI需求正在挤占其他产品获取DRAM的资源，因为AI相关企业愿意为芯片支付更高价格。部分客户正在下调DRAM规格以应对缺货。 长期供货协议（LTA）正成为DRAM行业的标准。

Has the Memory Cycle Broken? Plus: Nvidia & Broadcom’s $40B+ Financing Playbook With @BenBajarin and @jaygoldberg Chapters: (00:00) Intro (00:34) Micron Earnings: Has the Memory Market Structurally Changed? (05:10) The 2028 Supply Question & China’s (CXMT) Fast Fab Buildout (07:16) HBM vs. Commodity Memory: The Case for "Trailing-Edge" DDR4 (12:26) Opportunity Costs: Wafer Trade-Offs, Tesla De-Specing & Smartphone Cycles (21:16) Micron Stock Reaction & Market Skepticism (22:32) Inside HPE’s Investor Event: A Networking Company Now? (25:47) The Helios Rack, Broadcom Tomahawk Switches & HPE’s Unique IP Question (32:18) "Balance Sheet as a Service": Nvidia’s NDR Deck & Broadcom’s $42B Anthropic Loan (36:54) Why Fabless Chipmakers Finance the Ecosystem Instead of TSMC (41:13) Hock Tan’s PE Playbook & How Nvidia Forces Competitors to Spend (50:00) Tokenomics: Quantifying the Real Unit Economics of AI Models (52:34) OpenAI’s "Ultra Fast" Tier, GPU Optimization & Fragmented Model Pricing (57:32) Wrap-Up & Outro

We cut our RAM in half for the Tesla AI5 chip (now 72GB of LP5) and 1/3 for AI6 (now 144GB of LP6). This was the only way to get enough volume for Optimus production and greatly reduces cost. As it turns out, we think this will have a negligible effect on Optimus performance, as memory bandwidth is a bigger limiting factor than total memory storage (bandwidth was held constant).

Fentanyl Grade Compute: Why a GB300 Rack Will Out-Price Blow by Weight in 2030 A GB300 NVL72 weighs roughly 1,580 kg fully populated and recent purchase orders put it at $5M per rack. That is $3,165/kg. Strip out the 1.5 tons of busbar, manifold and coolant and the GPU packages alone are well into gold territory, but we're pricing the rack, because that's what you actually take delivery of. Where that sits on the illicit commodity curve today ($/kg): $2,400 Cannabis flower $3,165 GB300 NVL72 $3,500 Fentanyl $28,000 Cocaine $65,000 Heroin $138,000 Gold So today NVIDIA ships a product that is denser in value than weed, roughly fentanyl-grade, and still an order of magnitude short of cocaine. For now... GB200 NVL72 was $4M, GB300 is ~$5M, and Vera Rubin NVL72 is already quoted at up to $8.8M at essentially the same rack mass. Rack weight is constrained by the datacenter floor loading; rack price is constrained by nothing. That's ~1.75x $/kg per generation with HBM, CoWoS and power all supply-limited through the decade. Cocaine: Colombia's new president has pledged a hard-line security crackdown with $1B in US aid behind it Every prior crackdown has consolidated the industry into fewer, better-capitalized operators with better logistics and higher yields per hectare. Consolidation is deflationary. We model US wholesale drifting from ~$28k/kg toward ~$12k/kg by 2030 as the supply chain professionalizes. **Crossover: 2030.** Our extrapolated NVL72-class rack hits ~$17k/kg while wholesale cocaine falls to ~$12k/kg. At that point the rational cartel pivots to smuggling racks, except a rack has a fixed 500+ kW power draw, a 3,300 lb forklift requirement and an export-control regime that is actually enforced. Cocaine has none of these problems, which is why it will remain the superior product for anyone without a substation. Key risks to the thesis: US retail coke is still ~$60–200/g, i.e. $60k–200k/kg so the crossover only holds at wholesale. Retail compute (H100 hour on a neocloud) is also marked up, so we consider this an apples-to-apples wholesale comparison. Full model available to Coke Research subscribers.