#大佬观点

The "Rack Spread" is unfolding, token prices are falling while GPU prices climb Change since mid-July: - B300 GPU rentals up 106% - B200 up 66% - H100 up 17% - Average token prices down 58% Charts of the Week: https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-job-fud-fades

Avicena has converted me from #1 hater to an ultra bull. Cant wait to finish writeup. Seriously there were three meetings totaling ~6 hours. They had excellent answers to every question/concern. Electrical, optic, dispersion, FEC, fiber cost, alignment, packaging, DFE backprop.

Humanoids Summit organizer Modar Alaoui has spilled the beans on Tesla's secret Optimus plans in an interview with The San Francisco Standard. What he says Tesla told him: Optimus reservations will be timed to launch with his summit (Dec 1-2), or in the days right after. Tesla is a key partner of the event this year and plans to demo the Optimus V3 and showcase its self-driving cars there. What Alaoui expects on top of that: consumer reservations open in early December (a first for the public), the first shipment being the V3 since the prior gen was mainly a prototype, and most robots going to companies with only a small number set aside for consumers, at an expected $20,000+.

When agents become users, operators lose the assumption that every workload is trusted. Mohamed Awad explains why DPUs and hardware isolation move deeper into the AI control plane. Full paid interview: https://www.thediligencestack.com/p/executive-interview-arms-mohamed

If $LITE really accepts the $MRVL merger offer, it'll be proof that its moat was vastly overstated by many analysts There's no way they'd agree to this if they had the dominant position many have been claiming they do

Expert Takeaways: Nebius > Nebius operates an auction-driven cluster-access pricing model that drives up pricing levels by ~20% through competitive bidding. > Nebius requires 60–65% upfront contract payments, providing strong protection compared to debt-heavy peers like CoreWeave (facing up to 15% interest on new debt). > Short-term spot capacity fetches $40–50M ACV per megawatt (potentially up to $60M with auction uplift) vs. $20–25M for medium-term deals. > Tight supply for latest-generation GPUs through at least mid-2028 supports reserving 2027 capacity for high-margin spot workloads. > Meta and SpaceX control >1M GPUs and plan to deploy 25k–50k units monthly, pulling bare-metal contracts away from neoclouds. > Open-source models deliver comparable results at 70–80% lower cost, eroding OpenAI and Anthropic enterprise revenue. > Gartner projects >80% of independent neoclouds will fail by 2030 due to a K-shaped market favoring GB300/Vera-class hardware over older GPUs. > Nebius is insulated from cascading neocloud defaults because its core clients (Microsoft, Meta) are AA/AAA-rated, unlike BB-rated frontier labs. > High-end hardware (GB200/GB300) is shifting to inference workloads, which offer 4–8× higher margins than training. > Micron predicts HBM3/HBM4 memory shortages beyond 2028, while Microsoft’s 300,000 internal Maia ASICs displace demand for 300,000+ Nvidia GPUs. $NBIS $GOOGL $META $MSFT $AMZN

Production is Deterrence.

One of the most important lessons in CPU design is that the architectural decisions you make today determine the performance headroom you have tomorrow. Real progress isn't just about pushing frequencies higher or consuming more power. It's about making the right tradeoffs.

The American Dynamism 50 is a16z's annual list of companies building for America's future. This year's edition covers the industrial base end to end, from the inputs that come out of the ground to factories that make things and systems that deter conflict. a16z's Erin Price-Wright and Connor Love join Elena Burger to break down this year's list and its theme, Production is Deterrence, built around a simple idea: "You don't have a defense industrial base without an industrial base." 0:50 From mines to factories and systems 3:05 How the internet and nuclear was built 5:05 Drones built DJI into a robotics giant 6:50 Defense dollars pay for new factories 8:30 SpaceX and Tesla lessons on scale 10:15 How Mariana runs a mine on software 12:20 "AI cannot turn a wrench yet" 14:10 Retooling in 20 mins, not 3 months 17:45 Startups build before Pentagon asks 20:35 Why hard tech can be more valuable 24:45 The race for the biggest American flag 28:25 How defense parts unlock US robotics 32:05 The rise of the "manufacturing middle" 37:25 Anduril and SpaceX founder mafias 41:05 Private capital: USA's edge over China 46:30 The buildout must hit Middle America YouTube: https://youtu.be/cRJ7CfaK1Vc @espricewright @ConnorLoveCA @VirtualElena

The American Dynamism 50 is a16z's annual list of companies building for America's future. This year's edition covers the industrial base end to end, from the inputs that come out of the ground to factories that make things and systems that deter conflict. a16z's Erin Price-Wright and Connor Love join Elena Burger to break down this year's list and its theme, Production is Deterrence, built around a simple idea: "You don't have a defense industrial base without an industrial base." 0:50 From mines to factories and systems 3:05 How the internet and nuclear was built 5:05 Drones built DJI into a robotics giant 6:50 Defense dollars pay for new factories 8:30 SpaceX and Tesla lessons on scale 10:15 How Mariana runs a mine on software 12:20 "AI cannot turn a wrench yet" 14:10 Retooling in 20 mins, not 3 months 17:45 Startups build before Pentagon asks 20:35 Why hard tech can be more valuable 24:45 The race for the biggest American flag 28:25 How defense parts unlock US robotics 32:05 The rise of the "manufacturing middle" 37:25 Anduril and SpaceX founder mafias 41:05 Private capital: USA's edge over China 46:30 The buildout must hit Middle America YouTube: https://youtu.be/cRJ7CfaK1Vc @espricewright @ConnorLoveCA @VirtualElena

This is my conversation with Michael Kagan, the founder of Mellanox and current CTO of NVIDIA We speak about his life, the progression of networking over the span of his career, and how the work that NVIDIA is now doing to build "Planet scale" computing I hope you enjoy the conversation as much as I did 00:00 Highlights 01:16 Growing Up in Russia and Moving to Israel 03:42 Intel, the PC Revolution, and a Passion for Technology 06:14 Sponsor: Liquid 06:33 Lessons from Intel: Software and Networking 10:10 Founding Mellanox and the Vision for Cloud Computing 14:34 From Supercomputers to the Cloud 17:46 How GPUs Sparked the AI Revolution 20:52 Sponsor: Compute Exchange 21:14 NVLink and the Rise of Rack-Scale Computing 24:57 The Engineering Challenges Behind NVL72 27:39 Designing Hardware for Future AI Workloads 29:43 BlueField DPUs and the AI Factory 32:55 Making AI Agents Safer 35:37 What Mellanox Could Have Done Differently 37:03 NVLink, InfiniBand, and Spectrum-X 39:24 Connecting AI Factories at Planetary Scale 42:42 Keeping Massive AI Systems Running Through Failures

SAMSUNG: THE MEMORY SHORTAGE WILL WORSEN IN 2027 COMPARED WITH THIS YEAR.