#大佬观点

Nathan Lambert, former post-training co-lead at the Allen Institute for AI, now launching Trillium, a nonprofit open AI lab, joins a16z's Lisha Li to discuss whether open models can really keep up with the frontier. When he tells researchers in China that an average OpenAI researcher reportedly has five thousand H100s to work with, "their jaw just falls to the floor." In his view, Chinese labs have the talent but are mostly short on compute. He also thinks the distillation story is overblown. Based on the research, he puts its edge at a few months, and says "there's a bit of cope" in thinking only American labs can build good models. A lot of frontier progress outside math and code comes down to labs buying 1) data and 2) RL environments. It's a multibillion-dollar market, and some of it is sloppy enough to teach models to reward hack. That's a big part of why Trillium exists. Nathan wants to give away the environments other people would sell, and show exactly how his team uses AI to build AI, including where the models still get stuck. His bet is that the more people can see how this works, the better prepared everyone is for what's coming. 0:55 Can open models keep up with the frontier? 2:05 What it takes to reach the frontier 3:55 Open weights and the fast-follower playbook 8:25 Chinese labs: equal talent, less compute 9:55 Why distillation is harder than it looks 14:55 Is distillation theft or competition? 16:20 The lab flywheel vs owning your weights 21:45 Can general models beat every specialist? 26:30 AI at 1% of today's cost in 4 years 27:15 The RL env boom and reward hacking 31:30 What Trillium will build in the open 35:30 Breaking into AI in the age of AI slop 38:05 Open-sourcing how AI builds AI 44:25 Why Nathan isn't pre-training 49:45 Agent swarms and why lab secrets leak 54:25 Fast takeoff vs risks already here YouTube: https://youtu.be/BKuK0M6oDTI @natolambert @trillium_labs @lishali88

The most fucking valuable slide at OCP: Rubin Ultra NVL576 uses CPO for scale-up. High-volume production remains uncertain, but it looks like they’ll try to make it happen.

Nathan Lambert, former post-training co-lead at the Allen Institute for AI, now launching Trillium, a nonprofit open AI lab, joins a16z's Lisha Li to discuss whether open models can really keep up with the frontier. When he tells researchers in China that an average OpenAI researcher reportedly has five thousand H100s to work with, "their jaw just falls to the floor." In his view, Chinese labs have the talent but are mostly short on compute. He also thinks the distillation story is overblown. Based on the research, he puts its edge at a few months, and says "there's a bit of cope" in thinking only American labs can build good models. A lot of frontier progress outside math and code comes down to labs buying 1) data and 2) RL environments. It's a multibillion-dollar market, and some of it is sloppy enough to teach models to reward hack. That's a big part of why Trillium exists. Nathan wants to give away the environments other people would sell, and show exactly how his team uses AI to build AI, including where the models still get stuck. His bet is that the more people can see how this works, the better prepared everyone is for what's coming. 0:55 Can open models keep up with the frontier? 2:05 What it takes to reach the frontier 3:55 Open weights and the fast-follower playbook 8:25 Chinese labs: equal talent, less compute 9:55 Why distillation is harder than it looks 14:55 Is distillation theft or competition? 16:20 The lab flywheel vs owning your weights 21:45 Can general models beat every specialist? 26:30 AI at 1% of today's cost in 4 years 27:15 The RL env boom and reward hacking 31:30 What Trillium will build in the open 35:30 Breaking into AI in the age of AI slop 38:05 Open-sourcing how AI builds AI 44:25 Why Nathan isn't pre-training 49:45 Agent swarms and why lab secrets leak 54:25 Fast takeoff vs risks already here YouTube: https://youtu.be/BKuK0M6oDTI @natolambert @trillium_labs @lishali88

https://x.com/i/article/2110168864101163008

Unpacking Marvell's Analyst Day, OpenAI Revenue Rumors, and the Heterogeneous Rack with @benbajarin and @jaygoldberg (00:00) Intro: Semicon West, Applied Materials EPIC Center & OCP Summit (02:51) Marvell Analyst Day: Shifting the Narrative Beyond Amazon (05:23) Has Marvell Found Its Lane in Data Center Infrastructure? (13:39) Fungible Workloads & Heterogeneous Scale-Up Compute Domains (16:33) Specialized Inference Silicon: Prefill vs. Decode Chips (24:03) Marvell's New AI Infrastructure Management Silicon vs. BMCs & FPGAs (35:27) OpenAI ARR Rumors & The Fragility of the Semiconductor Trade (40:09) The 20-30 GW Grid Bottleneck & Data Center Delays (44:56) Why the AI Cycle Differs From Previous Tech Mega-Cycles (53:58) TSMC's Wafer Allocation, AMD's Upside & The Intel Foundry Threat (57:20) How a Terrible PC Market Frees Up Server & AI Wafers

突发消息：$ASML 2026年第三季度总净销售额达117亿欧元，毛利率57.5%，净利润50亿欧元。 https://ms.spr.ly/6017aszI1

Jensen Huang le sait : la France est le pays le plus attractif d’Europe pour l’intelligence artificielle, grâce à nos talents, nos infrastructures et nos entreprises qui nous permettent de rester à l’avant-garde. Depuis Choose France, notre coopération avec NVIDIA s’accélère, des startups aux grands acteurs industriels, en passant par les infrastructures de calcul et la recherche. Avec une nouvelle étape aujourd’hui : NVIDIA investit dans des entreprises françaises et s’engage à soutenir notre initiative franco-allemande pour développer la recherche ouverte en Europe. Cela a d’autant plus de valeur que nous partageons et portons la même exigence d’une intelligence artificielle ouverte, sûre et au service de notre souveraineté. Merci cher Jensen pour votre confiance et votre soutien.

An evening in Paris with Jensen and the founders, researchers, and partners shaping AI across France. 🇫🇷

.@JensenHuang wrapped up his Paris visit at the Élysée with President @EmmanuelMacron, discussing NVIDIA’s investments in France’s AI ecosystem, open source, and AI safety. Our road to #NVIDIAGTC Berlin continues.