#大佬观点

“.. At the moment, we have more compute capacity than we have demand, and we have a lot of the tokens and processing power being given away in freemium solutions,” he told @CNBC. “Everyone in the AI race is running for a last-man standing position.” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/gartner-analyst-warns-about-ai-neccloud-build-out.html

WFE to the Moon (Still), Semicon West and OCP Insights With @benbajarin and @jaygoldberg (00:00) Intro: Semicon West & OCP Summit Double-Event Week (01:02) Semicap & Wafer Equipment: Gearing Up for the $300B+ TAM (07:33) Larger Reticle Sizes & Tesla's TeraFab Tool Orders (09:50) Applied Materials' EPIC Center Grand Opening (11:05) TSMC Earnings: Conducting Data Center Physical Site Inspections (14:30) Converting N5 Fabs to N3 & Trailing-Edge Tool Shortages (18:26) Hybrid Bonding for HBM Stacks: Semicap vs. Customer Views (22:27) Anecdote: Door-to-Door Data Center Evangelism in San Diego (26:00) OCP Floor Recaps: Standards, Optical Backplanes & Liquid Cooling (33:55) The Delta Electronics 3MW Cooler & Managing Concurrent Tech Transitions (36:58) 800V DC Data Center Power & Analog Design Wins (43:35) The Copper vs. Optical Debate: The Classic Mustang vs. Ferrari Metaphor (47:46) Multi-Rack Scale-Up Domains: Extending Copper's Life North-to-South (52:16) NVIDIA's Rubin Ultra & Co-Packaged Optics Timelines

Ali Ghodsi of @Databricks on the four conditions that would have to hold for AI to truly improve itself: "The next model requires less resources, less GPUs to train... The second condition: the next model takes less time to train as well. Third, accuracy of the model, the intelligence is increasing. And fourth, we can do the former three again and again and again... All at the same time, not just any of them." "If you just mean that the software is writing itself, we're already there today. Like 90-some percent of the software in Databricks is written by AI. Does it matter if the last few percent is also written by AI? No." "If you're getting these four conditions, then you might get a speed-up where the next model, let's say, takes half amount of time and half the resources, and it is more intelligent... By the way, I don't even know if that necessarily leads you to superintelligence." "A lot of people, their definition is just, 'Hey, if I'm not even coding anymore and it's coding itself'... I think they're conflating, 'Hey, what's my value and is it scary for me?' Versus, 'Hey, that then means we'll get that superintelligence that in 2014 was hypothesized by Bostrom.'" @alighodsi @martin_casado @sarah_wang

Ben Horowitz on the lesson LoudCloud, his early cloud company, taught him about today's AI neoclouds, and why they now face the opposite problem: "It can end up being like a very dangerous arbitrage business, where you can get upside-down easily. And so if you look at LoudCloud, just as an example, here's a simple thing that happened to us." "In 1999, bandwidth was $1,500 a megabit. And you couldn't get it. It was very hard to get it. And so you had to get a long-term contract, three years. By 2001, it was $50 a megabit... And if you borrowed money to get it, you're dead." "That kind of thing is so out of the control of the entrepreneur." "I think the core dynamic of AI has been working for CoreWeave, though, in that there's a massive shortage, not an overage of supply... Token prices have gone down, but GPU prices have not." "And by the way, data center space is going up in price because even labor to build data centers is hard. The politics are making it hard to build data centers. So the whole supply chain price is going up and demand is not subsiding." "Those are very big tailwinds for CoreWeave, despite the fact that the debt markets, kind of independent of them, are tough." @bhorowitz w/ @chamath on @allinpod

Amused that AWS just unilaterally cancelled Cloudflare's Reinvent booth. There are always signs when someone finally realizes they're losing. Guess we'll just attend and throw the most fun side events without paying Amazon! Reply if you want an invite.

Anyone can build a datacenter, they said